Baldwin County market shows more stable increase

By John Underwood
Posted 2/3/17

Editor’s Note: This story is the first in a two-part series on Baldwin County’s real estate and home building industries.

ROBERTSDALE — More than a decade after a real estate boom in Baldwin …

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Baldwin County market shows more stable increase

Posted

Editor’s Note: This story is the first in a two-part series on Baldwin County’s real estate and home building industries.

ROBERTSDALE — More than a decade after a real estate boom in Baldwin County eventually went bust, local Realtors say they are seeing a steady, more stable increase in home and condo sales.

“We’re not seeing the kinds of numbers we were seeing in 2004-2005, but we don’t want to,” said Gulf Shores Realtor Frank Malone, 2016-17 Board President of the Baldwin County Association of Realtors. “If we were seeing increases of 20 to 30 percent, those types of increases are simply unhealthy and unsustainable.”

The market is also more stable than it was a decade ago, Malone said.

“At its peak in 2005, the market was more speculative,” he said, meaning that a good number of the sales were buyers looking to make a quick profit. “In today’s market there are more families buying, those looking to get into a bigger home or selling their bigger home looking to downsize.”

Figures from BCAR’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS) show an 8 percent increase in total sales (combined single-family and condo) overall from 2015 to 2016 with approximately $1.3 billion in total sales in 2016, an increase of more than $100 million in total sales from 2015 to 2016.

Total unit sales increased approximately 5 percent, 5,046 total sales in 2016, up from 4,813 total sales from 2015 with the average sale increasing from approximately $258,000 to $268,000, in increase in average of about 4 percent.

County-wide single-family units accounted for 3,440 sales in 2016, up from 3,236 in 2015, an increase of about 6 percent with the average price increasing from $240,610 to $248,315, an increase of about 3 percent for a total sales increasing from about $779 million to about $854 million, an increase of about $76 million.

On the beach, Malone said condo sales still predominate the market.

“I think you’re seeing a slight increase in single-family unit sales,” he said, “but condo sales are still driving the market down here.”

Overall in 2016, condo unit sales were up about 2 percent over 2015 with 1,606 units sold compared to 1,577 units sold over the previous year. The average sale price increased about 5 percent, according to MLS figures, with averages up from about $300,000 to approximately $310,000, a total sales boost of about $35 million, going from slightly over $463 million in total sales in 2015 to just under $498 million in total sales in 2016, an increase of about 7 percent overall.

Dominance in single-family sales increases as you go further north, Malone said, and with developments such as OWA just beginning, and new schools such as Elberta High School in the works, increase in family units could steadily increase over the next decade.

“I don’t think we’ve even begun to see the impact of OWA in terms of growth and economic impact,” Malone said.

On the Eastern Shore the increase in home sales is more in the 5 to 6 percent range.

“I don’t think you’re seeing as big an increase in the sale of existing homes as you’re seeing in new home construction,” said Paige Moore, broker/owner with Re/MAX By The Bay Real Estate. “From an insurance standpoint and from a market standpoint, it’s just much easier to build than to buy.”

Definitely gone are the days of empty subdivisions, Moore said, as the economic impact of industrial developments in Mobile County such as Austal and Air Bus are in the beginning stages of impact in Baldwin County’s residential market.

“We definitely need more sellers in the market and if you have been waiting to sell, now is a good time to do it,” she said. “I would not call this a sellers’ market because that implies that prices are more skewed toward the seller. We are still seeing very reasonable prices for our market.”

Another trend, Moore said, are homeowners who are choosing to rebuild homes on existing home sites, particularly when it comes to older homes.

While he sees some of that as well, Sean Gibbs with Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate, says he sees more home renovations, taking an older home and making improvements in order to sell to a new buyer.

“I think you’re going to see more and more of this in the future,” he said.

Gibbs said he also sees the trend on the Eastern Shore gravitating toward new construction rather than the sale of existing homes.

“I think where you’re going to see a huge increase over the next few years will be in places like Silverhill or Loxley,” he said. “I think people are tapping into those markets along with 181 and 59 arteries. I’ve heard more about Silverhill over the last few months than I’ve heard over the previous several years and with its approximation to Interstate 10, Loxley is on the verge when you’re talking expansion east from Mobile and the Eastern Shore.”

Gibbs said sales figures could easily grow from 6 percent to 15 to 20 percent over the next few years with slow expansion continuing to creep north.

“I think when you’re talking about Bay Minette and to the north, the growth there is still pretty speculative,” he said.

But with talk of economic expansion of areas like the Mega Site in Bay Minette, that could easily be part of Baldwin County’s future growth.