Tropical wave could affect Caribbean during weekend

From Combined Reports
Posted 7/29/16

MIAMI – The first of two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean heading westward toward the Caribbean will start affecting islands there as early as this weekend.

A second system, further …

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Tropical wave could affect Caribbean during weekend

Posted

MIAMI – The first of two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean heading westward toward the Caribbean will start affecting islands there as early as this weekend.

A second system, further east in the Atlantic, has a better chance of development, forecasters said in the July 30 2 a.m. report.

The 8 a.m. report upped the chance of development of the nearest wave to a medium chance in five days and dropped the five-day forecast on the easternmost wave to 40 percent, but still at medium.

Regardless of development, the first system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive for development.

Currently it is located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph. Associated shower activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any development should be slow to occur at this time.

Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20 percent and formation chance through five days has moved to a medium 40 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the second of these tropical waves and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Verde continues to show signs of organization.

Although this system does not have a well-defined circulation at this time, some development is still possible during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.